Inventory Warning Signs for 6 Cities

Inventory levels are a powerful predictor of home prices—but only if you know where, and over what time frame, to look. This analysis models the relationship across U.S. cities, uncovering a sweet spot: a 26-month change in inventory offers the stronges

We know that inventory predicts prices.

Last week, we showed that once national housing supply exceeds 5.8 months, prices begin to fall—typically with a 9-month delay.

But national models only go so far. Most housing professionals—whether investors, developers, or brokers—don’t operate in “the U.S. market.” They operate in specific cities, where dynamics …